Technical analysis

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 21 - 25, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:

EUR/USD. According to Reuters sources, the rate close to 1.2000 currently suits both sides, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB. Looking at the chart, one could clarify: not 1.2000, but 1.1850. After all, it is along this horizon the pair has been moving for seven weeks. But, in fact, the difference of 150 points has no fundamental significance here.
It would seem that the "dovish" rhetoric that sounded at the end of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, September 16, should have reduced the attractiveness of the American currency. Moreover, the regulator announced its readiness to keep low interest rates until 2023. However, nothing of the kind happened. The reason is that no less “dovish” statements are constantly being heard from the ECB side.
On the contrary, the dollar tried to go up against the background of the fall in the stock market, but this attempt failed as well. Investors believe in the prospects of the euro and begin to actively open long positions as soon as the pair approaches the lower border of the 1.5-month channel 1.1700-1.2010. As a result, the pair returned to its equilibrium state by the end of the week and finished at 1.1845;
GBP/USD. The pound has been growing throughout the past week. And this despite the problems with the UK labor market, the worsening situation with COVID-19 and the still unsettled situation with Brexit. The initial vote in Parliament on the scandalous bill, the adoption of which will sharply increase the likelihood of a "hard" Brexit, did not add clarity to the order of parting with the EU.
Taking into account the above, the Bank of England at its meeting on September 17 did not begin to adjust the monetary policy, but decided, having taken a wait and see attitude, to leave everything as it is for the time being.
And despite all this, the pound managed to win back from the dollar more than 200 points and reach the iconic level of 1.3000 by midweek. This was followed by a rebound downward, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.2921;
USD/JPY. Like other regulators, the Bank of Japan decided to leave the interest rate unchanged. This decision was not a surprise to anyone. Markets associate much higher expectations with the departure of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Although his successor, Yushihide Suga, has vowed to continue his policy, certain changes will not take long.
Most experts last week voted in favour of the strengthening of the Japanese yen and the pair decrease to the level of 105.10 and then 100 points lower. And this prediction turned out to be 100% correct: the pair found the local bottom at 104.25, and placed the final chord in the 104.55 zone;
cryptocurrencies. Last week, we talked about a new indicator for assessing BTC investor sentiment, which was presented by the analytical resource CryptoQuant. At the $10,000 level, bitcoin is "experiencing strong demand from buyers," according to the instrument. The majority (60%) of experts agreed with the possibility of a rebound of the BTC/USD pair from this support and its moderate growth to the $10,700-11,200 zone, and they were right: having fixed the weekly low at $10,200, the pair reached a strong medium-term level of $11,100 by midweek, around which it has been revolving for eight weeks.
The increase in bitcoin transactions was more than 75% in August, according to The Block news agency. This fact may indicate a return to the industry of small miners who dropped out due to halving in May. Now they have the opportunity to start earning again thanks to the growth in the value of the main coin. And this is a good factor for the main cryptocurrency. Moreover, not only the number of transactions increased significantly, but their volume, which amounted to more than $191 billion. In July, the same figure was around $85 billion.
On the other hand, according to Glassnode analysis, almost 10% of the reward to miners is spent on transactions to place BTC coins on centralized exchanges, which is why this cryptocurrency is facing strong pressure from sellers when trying to rise above $11,100.
The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has risen slightly and is almost in the middle of the scale at 49 (41 weeks ago). The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has also grown in seven days, rising from $334 billion to $355 billion.
And one more interesting observation of The Block, now about Ethereum. While in August, compared to July, the income of bitcoin manners increased by 23%, the income of the miners of ethereum almost doubled - by 98%. According to some analysts, this may be due to the growing interest in this altcoin from large investors.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

EUR/USD. As for the technical analysis, it is clear that after a month and a half of the pair's movement in the 1700-1.2010